The government’s unprecedented furlough scheme, the brainchild of chancellor Rishi Sunak, which subsidised 11.6 million jobs, ended on 30 September.
Under the scheme, the government paid 80% of furloughed workers’ wages, up to £2,500 per month. It was the bulwark against instant job losses, protecting the income of employees from almost all sectors of the UK economy.
The New Economics Foundation warned that the end of the £70 bn scheme could leave more than 700,000 workers jobless.
However, according to the Office for National Statistics, job vacancies in the UK were at a record high at 1.2 million in September.
What does it mean for the economy and what’s next for employers and employees?
We spoke to Rohit Talwar, a London-based futurist speaker who shares the need for a foresight capability in a post-furlough future.
What is foresight capability?
It is about trying to understand what might shape the future and help us make better decisions today by understanding how our world might be in the future.
How will the pandemic, lockdown, furlough and the end of furlough affect foresight?
It highlighted the need for foresight. While people were aware of a pandemic, few had it on their radar as something to prepare for. Even fewer had the expectation that the economy would shut down as it did. This shocked many organisations and led them to prepare for turbulence.
What impact does furlough’s end have on organisations in terms of vision, values and strategic direction?
For a lot of organisations, it raises the question: “Do we need (furloughed) people back or can we function just as effectively without them?”.
It led to many organisations becoming leaner. Many struggled financially and will not employ furloughed staff. Others say they need to grow faster and have readily available talent from furloughed staff. It’s different for different businesses.
The critical thing was the acceleration of people's thinking about the future. We've seen five years worth of development in e-commerce happen within a few months. And shifts to working from home and acceleration of automation, as businesses try to reduce their reliance on humans. Businesses will question how they should design around a digital model.
So the end of furlough means large-scale job losses?
Yes, these job losses are beginning to emerge as a result of Brexit and accelerated automation.
Are job losses within top leadership or at middle or lower levels within organisations?
Historically, it's always been easier to cut people at the bottom. This time round, we've seen a more focused approach where more management is cut because we are automating more. We don't need people just going to meetings. We want streamlined organisations with fast decision-making and more efficient communication. Some management roles could be consolidated or eliminated.
If some jobs will be taken over by artificial intelligence, how can people find jobs?
On the plus side there are a lot of start-ups that are creating jobs. There is an emergence of new sectors, whether it is the green technologies like solar or new manufacturing processes like 3-D printing. However, that is not going to require as large a workforce.
How can people future-proof their jobs?
They need to take more responsibility for three types of learning and development. The first is learning how to learn and accelerating learning to acquire new knowledge and skills quickly. The second is self-management - skills that help us be really good players in the workplace - managing stress, communication skills, conflict resolution, problem solving, systems thinking and scenario planning. Finally, there are skills for different roles.
Does e-commerce spell the end for bricks and mortar businesses?
It doesn’t spell the end but it's driving a rethink where we question the purpose of our physical outlet.